I will not report on the latest poll showing Trump in the lead… I will not report on the latest poll showing Trump in the lead… I will not report on the latest poll showing Trump in the lead… I will not report on the latest poll showing Trump in the lead… I will not report on the latest poll showing Trump in the lead…….
DAMN IT COME ON I HAVE TO DO IT
Two new polls showing Trump continues to dominate:
According to the latest poll from Morning Consult, Trump is in the lead with 32 percent of Republican primary voters. Yes, you read that right, 32 percent. Now, the one thing that is strange about this poll is that Jeb Bush comes in at second place with 12 percent of GOP primary voters. This contradicts the latest polls showing Jeb Bush’s lead declining. However, like previous polls, Ben Carson’s rise appears to be for real. While Carson doesn’t break double-digits in this poll, Carson does lead all other candidates with 7 percent of the vote. Huckabee, Rubio and Cruz are all tied at 5 percent.
This next poll is from CNN/ORC, and like all other polls, it shows Trump with a commanding lead (24%) in the field of GOP presidential candidates. Like the poll above, the new CNN poll does show that Jeb Bush may be having a batter week than previous ones, as Bush comes in at second place in this poll at 13 percent (and like the poll above, he is the only candidate aside from Trump to garner double-digit support). The rest of the poll confirms what we already know: Carson’s surge appears to be for real as he comes in at 9 percent, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker are right behind him at 8 percent, and Ted Cruz comes in at 5 percent. Unlike the Fox News poll I posted about yesterday, Rand Paul actually appears to have some life in this latest poll (6 percent).
Perhaps an explanation for Bush’s recent rise in the polls could be due to Trump’s release of his very conservative and draconian immigration plan. Trump not only released what Ezra Klein calls a “very,very cruel” immigration plan, but he also got several other GOP candidates to play a game of “monkey see, monkey do” by endorsing ending birthright citizenship by repealing or changing the 14th Amendment. This may have ended up mobilizing immigration-friendly Republicans to start pivoting back to Bush, who reiterated his support for a path to legalization (not citizenship) for undocumented immigrants and refused to endorse the idea of ending birthright citizenship.
At the moment, it’s unclear how the RNC and “Republican Estblishment” feels about the rise of Trump and his new immigration plan. On the one hand, you have to figure they are not happy. Everybody knows the GOP only got 28 percent of the Latino vote in 2012, and if this plan becomes Republican Party doctrine, you can expect Latino support for the GOP to be even lower in 2016. On the other hand, it’s possible the RNC is loving the excitement and persistent media coverage for the GOP field. It’s also possible that those same folks might sour on the gargantuan level of media coverage should Trump continue to lead the GOP field in October or November. But in the meantime, having 24 million people tune into a debate exposes voters to all candidates, not just Trump. That is a huge chunk of attention being paid to one side of the aisle. It will be nearly impossible for Democrats to get that many viewers for their first debate in October.